A novel prediction tool for mortality in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding requiring emergency hospitalization: a large multicenter study.

The study aimed to identify prognostic factors for patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding and to develop a high-accuracy prediction tool. The analysis included 8254 cases of acute hematochezia patients who were admitted urgently based on the judgment of emergency physicians or gastroenterology consultants (from the CODE BLUE J-study). Patients were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio using a random number table. Assuming that factors present at the time of admission are involved in mortality within 30 days of admission, and adding management factors during hospitalization to the factors at the time of admission for mortality within 1 year, prognostic factors were established. Multivariate analysis was conducted, and scores were assigned to each factor using regression coefficients, summing these to measure the score. The newly created score (CACHEXIA score) became a tool capable of measuring both mortality within 30 days (ROC-AUC 0.93) and within 1 year (C-index, 0.88). The 1-year mortality rates for patients classified as low, medium, and high risk by the CACHEXIA score were 1.0%, 13.4%, and 54.3% respectively (all P < 0.001). After discharge, patients identified as high risk using our unique predictive score require ongoing observation.

Diagnostic performance of deep-learning-based virtual chromoendoscopy in gastric neoplasms.

BACKGROUNDS: Cycle-consistent generative adversarial network (CycleGAN) is a deep neural network model that performs image-to-image translations. We generated virtual indigo carmine (IC) chromoendoscopy images of gastric neoplasms using CycleGAN and compared their diagnostic performance with that of white light endoscopy (WLE). METHODS: WLE and IC images of 176 patients with gastric neoplasms who underwent endoscopic resection were obtained. We used 1,633 images (911 WLE and 722 IC) of 146 cases in the training dataset to develop virtual IC images using CycleGAN. The remaining 30 WLE images were translated into 30 virtual IC images using the trained CycleGAN and used for validation. The lesion borders were evaluated by 118 endoscopists from 22 institutions using the 60 paired virtual IC and WLE images. The lesion area concordance rate and successful whole-lesion diagnosis were compared. RESULTS: The lesion area concordance rate based on the pathological diagnosis in virtual IC was lower than in WLE (44.1% vs. 48.5%, p < 0.01). The successful whole-lesion diagnosis was higher in the virtual IC than in WLE images; however, the difference was insignificant (28.2% vs. 26.4%, p = 0.11). Conversely, subgroup analyses revealed a significantly higher diagnosis in virtual IC than in WLE for depressed morphology (41.9% vs. 36.9%, p = 0.02), differentiated histology (27.6% vs. 24.8%, p = 0.02), smaller lesion size (42.3% vs. 38.3%, p = 0.01), and assessed by expert endoscopists (27.3% vs. 23.6%, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic ability of virtual IC was higher for some lesions, but not completely superior to that of WLE. Adjustments are required to improve the imaging system's performance.

Potential for expanding indications and curability criteria of endoscopic resection for early gastric cancer in elderly patients: results from a Japanese multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Evidence for endoscopic resection (ER) in elderly patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) is limited. We assessed its clinical outcomes, and explored new indications and curability criteria. METHODS: We analyzed data from a Japanese multicenter prospective cohort study. Patients aged ≥75 years with EGC treated with ER were included. We classified "eCuraC-2 (corresponding to noncurative ER, defined in the Japanese gastric cancer treatment guidelines)" into "elderly-high (EL-H)" (>10% estimated metastatic risk) and "elderly-low (EL-L)" (≤10%). RESULTS: In total, 3,371 patients with 3,821 EGCs were included; endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) was the prominent treatment choice. Among them, 3,586 lesions met the guidelines' ER indications and 235 did not. The proportions of en bloc and R0 resections and perforations were 98.9%, 94.4%, and 0.8%, respectively, in EGCs within the indications. In EGCs beyond the indications, they were 99.5%, 85.4%, and 5.9%, respectively, for lesions diagnosed as ≤3 cm, and 96.0%, 64.0%, and 18.0% for those >3 cm. Curative ER ("eCuraA/B") and EL-L were observed in 83.6% and 6.2% of lesions within the indications, respectively, and in 44.2% and 16.8% of lesions <3 cm beyond the indications, respectively. The 5-year cumulative gastric cancer death rates following eCuraA/B and EL-H were 0.3% (95% CI, 0.2-0.6) and 3.5% (2.0-5.7), respectively. Following EL-L, the rate was 0.9% (0.2-3.5) even without subsequent treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Usefulness of ESD for elderly EGC patients was confirmed by their clinical outcomes. Lesions ≤3 cm and EL-L emerged as new ER indication and curability criterion, respectively.

Clinical outcomes of endoscopic submucosal dissection for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with esophageal varices: Multicenter retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical outcomes of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) with esophageal varices (EVs) are obscure. We aimed to elucidate the clinical outcomes of ESD for ESCC with EVs in a multicenter, retrospective study. METHODS: We established a retrospective cohort of 30 patients with ESCC complicating EVs, who underwent ESD at 11 Japanese institutions. Rates of en bloc resection and R0 resection, procedure time, and adverse events were evaluated as indicators of the feasibility and safety of ESD. Additional treatment, recurrence, and metastasis of the lesions were evaluated as indicators of the long-term efficacy of ESD. RESULTS: Portal hypertension was caused by cirrhosis, of which alcohol was the most common cause. En bloc resection was achieved in 93.3% and R0 resection in 80.0% of the patients. The median procedure time was 92 min. Adverse events included a case of uncontrolled intraoperative bleeding leading to discontinuation of ESD and a case of esophageal stricture due to extensive resection. During the follow-up period of a median for 42 months, a patient with local recurrence and another patient with liver metastasis were observed. One patient died of liver failure after receiving chemoradiotherapy as an additional treatment after ESD. No patient died of ESCC. CONCLUSION: This multicenter, retrospective cohort study demonstrated the safety and efficacy of ESD for ESCC with EVs. Further studies are needed to establish appropriate treatment methods for EVs before ESD and additional treatments for patients with insufficient ESD.

Characteristics, outcomes, and risk factors of surgery for acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: nationwide cohort study of 10,342 hematochezia cases.

BACKGROUND: Current evidence on the surgical rate, indication, procedure, risk factors, mortality, and postoperative rebleeding for acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) is limited. METHODS: We constructed a retrospective cohort of 10,342 patients admitted for acute hematochezia at 49 hospitals (CODE BLUE J-Study) and evaluated clinical data on the surgeries performed. RESULTS: Surgery was performed in 1.3% (136/10342) of the cohort with high rates of colonoscopy (87.7%) and endoscopic hemostasis (26.7%). Indications for surgery included colonic diverticular bleeding (24%), colorectal cancer (22%), and small bowel bleeding (16%). Sixty-four percent of surgeries were for hemostasis for severe refractory bleeding. Postoperative rebleeding rates were 22% in patients with presumptive or obscure preoperative identification of the bleeding source and 12% in those with definitive identification. Thirty-day mortality rates were 1.5% and 0.8% in patients with and without surgery, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that surgery-related risk factors were transfusion need ≥ 6 units (P < 0.001), in-hospital rebleeding (P < 0.001), small bowel bleeding (P < 0.001), colorectal cancer (P < 0.001), and hemorrhoids (P < 0.001). Endoscopic hemostasis was negatively associated with surgery (P = 0.003). For small bowel bleeding, the surgery rate was significantly lower in patients with endoscopic hemostasis as 2% compared to 12% without endoscopic hemostasis. CONCLUSIONS: Our cohort study elucidated the outcomes and risks of the surgery. Extensive exploration including the small bowel to identify the source of bleeding and endoscopic hemostasis may reduce unnecessary surgery and improve the management of ALGIB.

Appropriate leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein cut-off value for Japanese patients with ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that serum leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein (LRG) could be a novel monitoring biomarker for the assessment of disease activity in inflammatory bowel disease. In particular, the relationship between LRG levels and the endoscopically assessed activity of ulcerative colitis (UC) has become a matter of interest. AIM: To clarify appropriate LRG cut-off values for the prediction of endoscopic and histologic remission in Japanese patients with UC. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional, single-center, observational study of Japanese patients with UC. Among 213 patients with UC, in whom LRG was measured from September 2020 to February 2022, we recruited 30 patients for whom a total colonoscopy and measurements of LRG and C-reactive protein (CRP) were performed on the same day. We retrospectively analyzed correlations between the LRG and CRP levels and endoscopic indices, including the Mayo endoscopic subscore and UC endoscopic index of severity. RESULTS: Correlations between the LRG values and the Mayo endoscopic subscore or UC endoscopic index of severity were significant (r = 0.754, P < 0.0001; r = 0.778, P < 0.0001, respectively). There were also significant correlations between CRP levels and Mayo endoscopic subscore or UC endoscopic index of severity (r = 0.599, P = 0.0005; r = 0.563, P = 0.0012, respectively), although the correlation coefficients were higher for LRG. The LRG cut-off value for predicting endoscopic remission was 13.4 µg/mL for a Mayo endoscopic subscore of 0 [area under the curve (AUC): 0.871; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.744-0.998], and 13.4 µg/mL for an UC endoscopic index of severity of 0 or 1 (AUC: 0.904; 95%CI: 0.792-1.000). CONCLUSION: LRG may be a surrogate marker for endoscopic activity in UC, with a cut-off value of around 13.4 µg/mL for endoscopically inactive disease.

Relationship between the changes in hepatokine levels and metabolic effects after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy in severely obese patients.

PURPOSE: To clarify the relationships between the changes in hepatokines and weight loss, and between these changes and the metabolic effects, and the roles played by these changes, after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG). METHODS: We recruited 25 Japanese patients with severe obesity, who underwent LSG. We measured two hepatokines: selenoprotein P (SeP) and leukocyte cell-derived chemotaxin 2 (LECT2), at the baseline, and then 6 months and 1 year after LSG. Finally, we compared the changes in the hepatokines with the parameters of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). RESULTS: Changes in LECT2 were correlated with the percentage of total weight loss (ρ = - 0.499, P = 0.024) and the decrease in total fat area (ρ = 0.559, P = 0.003). The changes in SeP were correlated with those in hemoglobin A1c (ρ = 0.526, P = 0.043) and the insulinogenic index (ρ = 0.638, P = 0.010) in T2D patients. In patients with NASH, the LECT2 levels were correlated with liver steatosis (ρ = 0.601). CONCLUSIONS: SeP levels decrease in association with HbA1c reduction, whereas LECT2 levels are associated with reductions in fat mass and NASH scores after LSG. Hepatokines may be involved in the pathology of obesity and its complications.

Early feeding reduces length of hospital stay in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: A large multicentre cohort study.

AIM: No studies have compared the clinical outcomes of early and delayed feeding in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB). This study aimed to evaluate the benefits and risks of early feeding in a nationwide cohort of patients with ALGIB in whom haemostasis was achieved. METHODS: We reviewed data for 5910 patients with ALGIB in whom haemostasis was achieved and feeding was resumed within 3 days after colonoscopy at 49 hospitals across Japan (CODE BLUE-J Study). Patients were divided into an early feeding group (≤1 day, n = 3324) and a delayed feeding group (2-3 days, n = 2586). Clinical outcomes were compared between the groups by propensity matching analysis of 1508 pairs. RESULTS: There was no significant difference between the early and delayed feeding groups in the rebleeding rate within 7 days after colonoscopy (9.4% vs. 8.0%; p = 0.196) or in the rebleeding rate within 30 days (11.4% vs. 11.5%; p = 0.909). There was also no significant between-group difference in the need for interventional radiology or surgery or in mortality. However, the median length of hospital stay after colonoscopy was significantly shorter in the early feeding group (5 vs. 7 days; p < 0.001). These results were unchanged when subgroups of presumptive and definitive colonic diverticular bleeding were compared. CONCLUSION: The findings of this nationwide study suggest that early feeding after haemostasis can shorten the hospital stay in patients with ALGIB without increasing the risk of rebleeding.

Weekend Effect on Clinical Outcomes of Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Large Multicenter Cohort Study in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Weekend admissions showed increased mortality in several medical conditions. This study aimed to examine the weekend effect on acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) and its mortality and other outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study (CODE BLUE-J Study) was conducted at 49 Japanese hospitals between January 2010 and December 2019. In total, 8,120 outpatients with acute hematochezia were enrolled and divided into weekend admissions and weekday admissions groups. Multiple imputation (MI) was used to handle missing values, followed by propensity score matching (PSM) to compare outcomes. The primary outcome was mortality; the secondary outcomes were rebleeding, length of stay (LOS), blood transfusion, thromboembolism, endoscopic treatment, the need for interventional radiology, and the need for surgery. Colonoscopy and computed tomography (CT) management were also evaluated. RESULTS: Before PSM, there was no significant difference in mortality (1.3% vs. 0.9%, p = 0.133) between weekend and weekday admissions. After PSM with MI, 1,976 cases were matched for each admission. Mortality was not significantly different for weekend admissions compared with weekday admissions (odds ratio [OR] 1.437, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.785-2.630; p = 0.340). No significant difference was found with other secondary outcomes in weekend admissions except for blood transfusion (OR 1.239, 95% CI 1.084-1.417; p = 0.006). Weekend admission had a negative effect on early colonoscopy (OR 0.536, 95% CI 0.471-0.609; p < 0.001). Meanwhile, urgent CT remained significantly higher in weekend admissions (OR 1.466, 95% CI 1.295-1.660; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Weekend admissions decrease early colonoscopy and increase urgent CT but do not affect mortality or other outcomes except transfusion.

LONG-HOSP Score: A Novel Predictive Score for Length of Hospital Stay in Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding - A Multicenter Nationwide Study.

INTRODUCTION: Length of stay (LOS) in hospital affects cost, patient quality of life, and hospital management; however, existing gastrointestinal bleeding models applicable at hospital admission have not focused on LOS. We aimed to construct a predictive model for LOS in acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the records of 8,547 patients emergently hospitalized for ALGIB at 49 hospitals (the CODE BLUE-J Study). A predictive model for prolonged hospital stay was developed using the baseline characteristics of 7,107 patients and externally validated in 1,440 patients. Furthermore, a multivariate analysis assessed the impact of additional variables during hospitalization on LOS. RESULTS: Focusing on baseline characteristics, a predictive model for prolonged hospital stay was developed, the LONG-HOSP score, which consisted of low body mass index, laboratory data, old age, nondrinker status, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, facility with ≥800 beds, heart rate, oral antithrombotic agent use, symptoms, systolic blood pressure, performance status, and past medical history. The score showed relatively high performance in predicting prolonged hospital stay and high hospitalization costs (area under the curve: 0.70 and 0.73 for derivation, respectively, and 0.66 and 0.71 for external validation, respectively). Next, we focused on in-hospital management. Diagnosis of colitis or colorectal cancer, rebleeding, and the need for blood transfusion, interventional radiology, and surgery prolonged LOS, regardless of the LONG-HOSP score. By contrast, early colonoscopy and endoscopic treatment shortened LOS. CONCLUSIONS: At hospital admission for ALGIB, our novel predictive model stratified patients by their risk of prolonged hospital stay. During hospitalization, early colonoscopy and endoscopic treatment shortened LOS.

Multicenter propensity score-matched analysis comparing short versus long cap-assisted colonoscopy for acute hematochezia.

Background and Aim: While short and long attachment caps are available for colonoscopy, it is unclear which type is more appropriate for stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH) identification in acute hematochezia. This study aimed to compare the performance of short versus long caps in acute hematochezia diagnoses and outcomes. Methods: We selected 6460 patients who underwent colonoscopy with attachment caps from 10 342 acute hematochezia cases in the CODE BLUE-J study. We performed propensity score matching (PSM) to balance baseline characteristics between short and long cap users. Then, the proportion of definitive or presumptive bleeding etiologies found on the initial colonoscopy and SRH identification rates were compared. We also evaluated rates of blood transfusions, interventional radiology, or surgery, as well as the rate of rebleeding and mortality within 30 days after the initial colonoscopy. Results: A total of 3098 patients with acute hematochezia (1549 short cap and 1549 long cap users) were selected for PSM. The rate of colonic diverticular bleeding (CDB) diagnosis was significantly higher in long cap users (P = 0.006). While the two groups had similar rates of the other bleeding etiologies, the frequency of unknown etiologies was significantly lower in long cap users (P < 0.001). The rate of SRH with active bleeding was significantly higher in long cap users (P < 0.001). Other clinical outcomes did not differ significantly. Conclusion: Compared to that with short caps, long cap-assisted colonoscopy is superior for the diagnosis of acute hematochezia, especially CDB, and the identification of active bleeding.

Long-term Risks of Recurrence After Hospital Discharge for Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Large Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Currently, large, nationwide, long-term follow-up data on acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) are scarce. We investigated long-term risks of recurrence after hospital discharge for ALGIB using a large multicenter dataset. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 5048 patients who were urgently hospitalized for ALGIB at 49 hospitals across Japan (CODE BLUE-J study). Risk factors for the long-term recurrence of ALGIB were analyzed by using competing risk analysis, treating death without rebleeding as a competing risk. RESULTS: Rebleeding occurred in 1304 patients (25.8%) during a mean follow-up period of 31 months. The cumulative incidences of rebleeding at 1 and 5 years were 15.1% and 25.1%, respectively. The mortality risk was significantly higher in patients with out-of-hospital rebleeding episodes than in those without (hazard ratio, 1.42). Of the 30 factors, multivariate analysis showed that shock index ≥1 (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 1.25), blood transfusion (SHR, 1.26), in-hospital rebleeding (SHR, 1.26), colonic diverticular bleeding (SHR, 2.38), and thienopyridine use (SHR, 1.24) were significantly associated with increased rebleeding risk. Multivariate analysis of colonic diverticular bleeding patients showed that blood transfusion (SHR, 1.20), in-hospital rebleeding (SHR, 1.30), and thienopyridine use (SHR, 1.32) were significantly associated with increased rebleeding risk, whereas endoscopic hemostasis (SHR, 0.83) significantly decreased the risk. CONCLUSIONS: These large, nationwide follow-up data highlighted the importance of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment during hospitalization and the assessment of the need for ongoing thienopyridine use to reduce the risk of out-of-hospital rebleeding. This information also aids in the identification of patients at high risk of rebleeding.

Outcomes and recurrent bleeding risks of detachable snare and band ligation for colonic diverticular bleeding: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ligation therapy, including endoscopic detachable snare ligation (EDSL) and endoscopic band ligation (EBL), has emerged as an endoscopic treatment for colonic diverticular bleeding (CDB); its comparative effectiveness and risk of recurrent bleeding remain unclear, however. Our goal was to compare the outcomes of EDSL and EBL in treating CDB and identify risk factors for recurrent bleeding after ligation therapy. METHODS: We reviewed data of 518 patients with CDB who underwent EDSL (n = 77) or EBL (n = 441) in a multicenter cohort study named the Colonic Diverticular Bleeding Leaders Update Evidence From Multicenter Japanese Study (CODE BLUE-J Study). Outcomes were compared by using propensity score matching. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed for recurrent bleeding risk, and a competing risk analysis was used to treat death without recurrent bleeding as a competing risk. RESULTS: No significant differences were found between the 2 groups in terms of initial hemostasis, 30-day recurrent bleeding, interventional radiology or surgery requirements, 30-day mortality, blood transfusion volume, length of hospital stay, and adverse events. Sigmoid colon involvement was an independent risk factor for 30-day recurrent bleeding (odds ratio, 1.87; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-3.40; P = .042). History of acute lower GI bleeding (ALGIB) was a significant long-term recurrent bleeding risk factor on Cox regression analysis. A performance status score of 3/4 and history of ALGIB were long-term recurrent bleeding factors on competing risk regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: There were no significant differences in outcomes between EDSL and EBL for CDB. After ligation therapy, careful follow-up is required, especially in the treatment of sigmoid diverticular bleeding during admission. History of ALGIB and performance status at admission are important risk factors for long-term recurrent bleeding after discharge.

Attenuated Familial Adenomatous Polyposis.

A 36-year-old man was diagnosed with multiple gastric polyps by esophagogastroduodenoscopy. Subsequent colonoscopy identified two tubular adenomas, and computed tomography revealed subcutaneous tumors. Based on these findings, we suspected that gastric polyposis was associated with the APC gene, either attenuated familial adenomatous polyposis (AFAP) or gastric adenocarcinoma and proximal polyposis of the stomach (GAPPS). A genetic analysis demonstrated that he had a frameshift variant at codon 1928 of APC, suggesting AFAP. In this era of less Helicobacter pylori infection and frequent use of proton pump inhibitors, diagnoses of AFAP and GAPPS should be considered in patients with prominent gastric fundic gland polyposis.

Current status and perspectives for endoscopic diagnosis of superficial nonampullary duodenal epithelial tumors.

In recent years, there have been significant advances in the endoscopic resection (ER) procedures of superficial nonampullary duodenal epithelial tumors (SNADETs). A preoperative endoscopic diagnosis is thus deemed necessary in determining the indication for subsequent ER. For the histologic and endoscopic diagnosis of SNADETs, understanding the mucin phenotype is inevitable. Recently, two diagnostic algorithms for the differential diagnosis of SNADETs from nonneoplastic lesions under magnifying endoscopy with narrow-band imaging have been proposed. In addition, various endoscopic approaches have been proposed to differentiate low- and high-grade adenomas/carcinomas, including white light endoscopy, magnifying image-enhanced endoscopy, and endocytoscopy. These methods, however, have not been standardized with respect to the classification of their findings and the validation of their diagnostic accuracy. Moreover, there are still concerns with respect to the histologic criteria required to establish a SNADETs diagnosis. Standardization in the histologic and endoscopic diagnosis of SNADETs is needed.

Treatment strategy after noncurative endoscopic resection for early gastric cancers in patients aged ≥ 85 years: a multicenter retrospective study in a highly aged area of Japan.

BACKGROUND: The guidelines recommend additional gastrectomy after noncurative endoscopic resection for early gastric cancers (EGCs). However, no additional treatment might be acceptable in some patients aged ≥ 85 years. We aimed to identify this patient group using the data in a highly aged area. METHODS: We enrolled patients aged ≥ 85 years after noncurative endoscopic resection for EGCs at 30 institutions of the Tohoku district in Japan between 2002 and 2017. Treatment selection and prognosis after noncurative endoscopic resection were investigated. Fourteen candidates were evaluated using the Cox model to identify risk factors for poor overall survival (OS) in patients with no additional treatment. RESULTS: Of 1065 patients aged ≥ 85 years, 143 underwent noncurative endoscopic resection. Despite the guidelines' recommendation, 88.8% of them underwent no additional treatment. The 5-year OS rates in those with additional gastrectomy and those with no additional treatment were 63.1 and 65.2%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed independent risk factors for poor OS in patients with no additional treatment were the high-risk category in the eCura system (hazard ratio [HR], 2.91), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≥ 3 (HR, 2.78), and male (HR, 2.04). In patients with no additional treatment, nongastric cancer-specific survival was low (69.0% in 5 years), whereas disease-specific survival rates were very high in the low- and intermediate-risk categories of the eCura system (100.0 and 97.1%, respectively, in 5 years). CONCLUSIONS: No additional treatment may be acceptable in the low- and intermediate-risk categories of the eCura system in patients aged ≥ 85 years with noncurative endoscopic resection for EGCs.

Prediction model of 3-year survival after endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancer in elderly patients aged ≥ 85 years: EGC-2 model.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the prognostic factors for survival after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) in elderly patients with early gastric cancer (EGC). The aim of this study is to determine prognostic factors and a prediction model of 3-year survival after ESD for EGC in patients aged ≥ 85 years. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated the clinical outcomes of 740 patients with EGC aged ≥ 85 years, who were treated by ESD at 30 institutions in Japan. Overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Prediction models for 3-year OS after ESD were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model based on Uno's C-statistics. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 309 patients died of any cause and 10 patients died of gastric cancer. OS and DSS after 3 years were 82.7% and 99.2%, respectively. No significant differences in OS were found among curability categories. The Cox proportional hazards model revealed the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) to be predictors of 3-year survival. We established a final model (EGC-2 model) expressed by GNRI - (2.2×CCI) with a cutoff value of 96. The overall survival rate was significantly lower in the model value < 96 group than in the model value ≥ 96 group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model using GNRI and CCI will be useful to support decision-making for the treatment of EGC in elderly patients aged ≥ 85 years.

Timing of colonoscopy in acute lower GI bleeding: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to determine the optimal timing of colonoscopy and factors that benefit patients who undergo early colonoscopy for acute lower GI bleeding. METHODS: We identified 10,342 patients with acute hematochezia (CODE BLUE-J study) admitted to 49 hospitals in Japan. Of these, 6270 patients who underwent a colonoscopy within 120 hours were included in this study. The inverse probability of treatment weighting method was used to adjust for baseline characteristics among early (≤24 hours, n = 4133), elective (24-48 hours, n = 1137), and late (48-120 hours, n = 1000) colonoscopy. The average treatment effect was evaluated for outcomes. The primary outcome was 30-day rebleeding rate. RESULTS: The early group had a significantly higher rate of stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH) identification and a shorter length of stay than the elective and late groups. However, the 30-day rebleeding rate was significantly higher in the early group than in the elective and late groups. Interventional radiology (IVR) or surgery requirement and 30-day mortality did not significantly differ among groups. The interaction with heterogeneity of effects was observed between early and late colonoscopy and shock index (shock index <1, odds ratio [OR], 2.097; shock index ≥1, OR, 1.095; P for interaction = .038) and performance status (0-2, OR, 2.481; ≥3, OR, .458; P for interaction = .022) for 30-day rebleeding. Early colonoscopy had a significantly lower IVR or surgery requirement in the shock index ≥1 cohort (OR, .267; 95% confidence interval, .099-.721) compared with late colonoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Early colonoscopy increased the rate of SRH identification and shortened the length of stay but involved an increased risk of rebleeding and did not improve mortality and IVR or surgery requirement. Early colonoscopy particularly benefited patients with a shock index ≥1 or performance status ≥3 at presentation.

Long-term Survival After Endoscopic Resection For Gastric Cancer: Real-world Evidence From a Multicenter Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed to clarify the long-term outcomes of endoscopic resection (ER) for early gastric cancers (EGCs) based on pathological curability in a multicenter prospective cohort study. METHODS: We analyzed the long-term outcomes of 9054 patients with 10,021 EGCs undergoing ER between July 2010 and June 2012. Primary endpoint was the 5-year overall survival (OS). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. We also compared the 5-year OS with the expected one calculated for the surgically resected patients with EGC. If the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the 5-year OS exceeded the expected 5-year OS minus a margin of 5% (threshold 5-year OS), ER was considered to be effective. Pathological curability was categorized into en bloc resection, negative margins, and negative lymphovascular invasion: differentiated-type, pT1a, ulcer negative, ≤2 cm (Category A1); differentiated-type, pT1a, ulcer negative, >2 cm or ulcer positive, ≤3 cm (Category A2); undifferentiated-type, pT1a, ulcer negative, ≤2 cm (Category A3); differentiated-type, pT1b (SM1), ≤3 cm (Category B); or noncurative resections (Category C). RESULTS: Overall, the 5-year OS was 89.0% (95% CI, 88.3%-89.6%). In a multivariate analysis, no significant differences were observed when the hazard ratio of Categories A2, A3, and B were compared with that of A1. In all the pathological curability categories, the lower limit of the 95% CI for the 5-year OS exceeded the threshold 5-year OS. CONCLUSION: ER can be recommended as a standard treatment for patients with EGCs fulfilling Category A2, A3, and B, as well as A1 (UMIN Clinical Trial Registry, UMIN000005871).